The commitments under the Paris Agreement (PA), mean that all parties including Thailand shall submit a Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) every 5 years. For Thailand, the submission of next NDC to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC) is due before COP30 in November 2025.

Under Thailand’s NDC 2035, the method for setting mitigation targets has shifted. Thailand now uses an absolute emissions reduction target compared to 2019 levels, a similar methodology to that adopted by developed countries, instead of the previous projection adopting the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario approach.

Thailand’s ambition is reflected in the change of its mitigation target-setting approach to include more sectoral contributions. The number has increased from four to five, with the agricultural sector being newly added alongside the existing energy, transport, waste, and Industrial Processes and Product Use (IPPU) sectors. The energy and transport sectors remain the primary contributors to GHG mitigation.

The technical procedure for NDC 2035 formulation began with energy demand analysis using the Asia Pacific Integrated Model (AIM). The ‘NDC action plan on mitigation for 2021-2030’ (DCCE, 2024), that was approved by the National Climate Change Policy Committee (NCCC) earlier this year, will then be used to assess the potential of GHG mitigation in each sector. From the NDC action plan, the data give the potential of GHG mitigation of the 5 sectors at 30 to 40%, including 184.8 MtCO₂eq of domestic implementation and 37.5 MtCO₂eq of implementation from international support. All measures in this report together with information from the first Global Stocktake were analysed to identify Thailand’s national GHG mitigation target in NDC2035.

(Draft) NDC Action Plan on Mitigation 2021 – 2030 (Department of Climate Change and Environment (DCCE), 2024)

In terms of institutional arrangements, the Department of Climate Change and Environment (DCCE) organised a kickoff meeting on 21-22 May 2024 in collaboration with sectoral focal points to discuss the institutional architecture for NDC 2035 development. The forum was joined by the Energy Policy and Planning Office (EPPO), the Office of Transport and Traffic Policy and Planning (OTP), the Pollution Control Department (PCD), the Department of Industrial Works (DIW), the Office of Agricultural Economics (OAE) and related agencies. In relation to this, the first round of the focus group meeting was held on 9 and 11 October 2024 to collect feedback on the draft of national GHG emission mitigation guidelines and measures.

Structure of Institutional arrangement (IA) of Thailand’s NDC, from the report ‘NDC action plan on mitigation for 2021-2030’ (DCCE, 2024)

Focus Group meeting for NDC 3.0 development hosted by DCCE, chaired by Dr Phirun Saiyasitpanich, Director General of DCCE and joined by sectoral focal points: the Energy Policy and Planning Office (EPPO), the Office of Transport and Traffic Policy and Planning (OTP), the Pollution Control Department (PCD), the Department of Industrial Works (DIW), and the Office of Agricultural Economics (OAE).

As the process moves forward, Thailand is preparing a draft of its NDC report covering mitigation and adaptation information. This study will be presented to a working group, undergo public hearings, and have its mitigation measures integrated by a sub-committee, before being approved by the national committee of climate change policy (NCCC), following which it will be presented to the Cabinet. In the final stage, it will be submitted to UNFCCC by 2025, ahead of COP30.

More information about the CCMB Project: https://www.thai-german-cooperation.info/en_US/climate-coastal-and-marine-biodiversity-ccmb/